2025: Sublette County Real Estate Market Year in Review
The 2025 Sublette County real estate numbers are in, and they tell a clear story: properties priced right are selling, properties testing the market are sitting, and time on market is costing sellers time and money.
We closed 110 sales in 2025, up nearly 20% from 2024's 92 transactions. The median sale price climbed 11.8% to $454,500. Total sales volume hit $55 million. On the surface, that looks like a strong year.
But the headline numbers don't tell the whole story. Let's look at what actually happened—and what it means for anyone thinking about selling in 2026.
The National Context: A Slower Market Everywhere
Before we dive into Sublette County, understand that what happened here reflects broader national trends.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units in November 2025—near 30-year lows and down 1% year-over-year. The national median home price was $409,200, up just 1.2% year-over-year, marking the weakest price appreciation since mid-2023.
Inventory nationally stood at 1.43 million units (4.2 months of supply) in November 2025, according to NAR's report released December 19, 2025. While that's up 7.5% year-over-year, it's still below pre-pandemic norms.
Price reductions became the norm across the country. Multiple national sources documented this trend:
Zillow reported that 26.9% of listings had price cuts in October 2025, with a median cumulative reduction of $25,000
HousingWire analysis showed 39% of listings nationally had price reductions by year-end 2025
Altos Research reported that 42% of listings cut prices in September 2025
According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun (quoted in NAR's December 19, 2025 report): "With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months."
Mortgage rates averaged 6.24% in November 2025, according to Freddie Mac data cited in NAR's report—the lowest level in over a year, but still more than double the pandemic-era lows.
Looking ahead, mortgage rate forecasts for 2026 remain in the low-6% range:
Fannie Mae (November 2025 Housing Forecast) predicts rates will average 6.2% in Q1 2026, potentially dropping below 6% by year-end 2026
The Mortgage Bankers Association (December 2025 forecast) expects rates to hold at 6.4% through 2026
Multiple housing economists quoted in U.S. News (December 5, 2025) and Money.com (December 29, 2025) forecast rates bouncing between 6% and 6.5% for the next two years
The "lock-in effect"—homeowners with 3% pandemic-era mortgages reluctant to sell—continues to constrain inventory. This dynamic keeps supply tight while simultaneously reducing buyer purchasing power compared to 2020-2021.
Sublette County 2025: The Big Picture
Against that national backdrop, here's what happened locally in 2025:
Total sales: 110 (up from 92 in 2024, +19.6%)
Total volume: $55.0M (up from $45.3M, +21.3%)
Median sale price: $454,500 (up from $406,500, +11.8%)
Median days on market: 115.5 days (up from 82 days, +40.9%)
Price reductions required: 48.2% of sales (up from 39.1%)
Median price reduction: -$35,100 (up from -$23,250)
Translation: More homes sold, at higher prices, but they took 40% longer to sell and nearly half of sellers had to reduce their price at least once to close the deal.
The Time Cost of Overpricing
The most important pattern in the 2025 data isn't about price levels—it's about time on market and what it costs sellers.
Properties that sold in the first 30 days preserved 100% of their original list price. Properties that sold in 31-60 days averaged 96-97% of original list. But properties that sat for 121+ days gave up 11-17% from their starting price.
That's not negotiation. That's the penalty for testing the market with aspirational pricing.
On a $500,000 listing, the difference between selling in 60 days versus 120+ days is $55,000. Some of this hypothetical figure can be chalked up to excess listing price. But some of it is real money left on the table because the property was priced wrong from day one and went stale. And this doesn’t include a seller’s carrying costs for a long-term listing.
North County: Higher Price Point, Slower Absorption
The Pinedale area and surrounding North County represented 82% of Sublette County's residential real estate market.
2025 Performance:
92 sales (up from 78 in 2024)
$49.7M total volume
$493,450 median sale price (up 9.7% from $450K in 2024)
118 days median time on market (up 50% from 78.5 days in 2024)
51.1% required price reductions (up from 37.2% in 2024)
Three-year trend: From 2023 to 2025, median prices in North County increased 18% (from $418K to $493K), but days on market increased 37% (from 86 to 118 days).
The market shifted dramatically in terms of velocity. In 2023-2024, roughly 35-36% of sales happened in the first 60 days. In 2025, that dropped to 22.8%. Nearly half of all North County sales (48.9%) took 121+ days to close, up from 37% in 2024.
Properties priced aggressively from day one moved in 60-90 days. Properties testing the market sat for four months plus and gave up an average of 11% to finally close.
South County: Lower Price Point, Faster Absorption
Big Piney, Marbleton, and La Barge represented 18% of the market.
2025 Performance:
20 sales (up from 19 in 2024)
$5.3M total volume
$237,500 median sale price (down 5% from $250K in 2024)
82.5 days median time on market (improved from 113 days in 2024)
30% required price reductions (down from 42.1% in 2024)
Properties that sold in 31-60 days averaged 98.82% of original list—better value preservation than North County. The 35% of properties that took 121+ days still gave up significant value (16.63% on average), but fewer sellers needed to go down that road.
The median price is roughly half of North County ($237K vs $493K). South County properties moved faster in 2025 when priced correctly, with better initial value preservation.
What's Happening Right Now (January 2026)
As we head into 2026, here's the current inventory picture:
North County:
44 active listings
12 pending sales
Absorption rate: 3.7 months of inventory
South County:
23 active listings
2 pending sales
Absorption rate: 11.5 months of inventory
North County is sitting at a relatively balanced inventory level (under 4 months is generally considered tight supply). South County is carrying nearly a year's worth of inventory based on recent absorption rates.
Translation: North County sellers with realistic pricing can still move properties in reasonable timeframes. South County sellers need to price aggressively to compete with a deep inventory pool.
The 2026 Outlook
Here's what we know heading into 2026:
Mortgage rates will stay elevated. Every major forecast—Fannie Mae, MBA, independent economists—predicts rates in the 6-6.5% range through 2026. Some optimistic forecasts see rates dipping below 6% by late 2026, but no one is predicting a return to pandemic-era lows.
The lock-in effect persists. Homeowners with 3% mortgages aren't selling unless they have to. This constrains inventory growth, which theoretically supports prices—but it also means fewer move-up buyers in the market.
Buyer selectivity continues. With monthly payments roughly double what they were in 2020-2021, buyers are cautious. They're running the numbers, comparing comps, and walking away from overpriced properties.
Inventory will grow slowly and seasonally. Unless rates drop dramatically (unlikely) or a recession forces distressed sales (also unlikely given high equity levels), inventory will continue growing gradually. That means more competition for sellers, especially during the seasonal influx of spring and early summer listings we usually see.
Time on market will stay elevated. Without aggressive pricing up front, most homes will likely take at least 90-120 days to sell.
Price reductions will remain common. If 48% of properties needed price cuts in 2025, expect that to stay at 40-50% in 2026. Sellers testing the market with high asking prices have a rough ride ahead.
The Lesson for 2026 Sellers
The market is indifferent to what your home means to its owners. Memories made there, what they paid, and what they invested in it are irrelevant to its actual market value.
The market cares about current value. What will a buyer with a 6.5% mortgage actually pay today?
Properties priced at current market value are selling in 60-90 days. Properties priced above market value are sitting for 120+ days and giving up 10-15% to finally close.
The choice is simple: price it right from day one, or plan to give up significantly more after four months (or much longer) of market rejection.
The math is brutal: Consider the earlier overpriced $500,000 listing figure. The seller thinks this is, "leaving room to negotiate," but it’s actually training every buyer who sees the listing to wait—because they know the price will eventually drop closer to actual market value. Sellers who overprice miss that critical “new listing” phase that lasts around two weeks. This is the time to capitalize on buyer enthusiasm and algorithmic advantages for more views on sites like Zillow and Realtor.com.
Meanwhile, the home that comes on market at the right price gets the first wave of serious buyers, creates immediate activity, and closes at or near list price in 60-90 days.
Final Thoughts
2025 taught us that pricing accuracy matters more than ever. 2026 will likely reinforce that lesson.
If you're thinking about selling, let's talk about what your property is actually worth ,and what buyers in this market are paying. Because the cost of getting it wrong his risen significantly.
Sources:
National Association of Realtors (NAR) - Existing Home Sales Report (December 19, 2025) https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-5-increase-in-november
Zillow - Home Price Reductions (October 2025) https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/zillow-reports-surprisingly-large-home-price-cuts-in-housing-market
HousingWire - U.S. Housing Market Analysis (2025) https://www.housingwire.com/articles/the-u-s-housing-market-in-2025/
Altos Research - Price Reductions Data (September 2025) https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-market-price-cuts-despite-sellers-advantage/
Fannie Mae - Housing Forecast (November 2025) https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/mortgage-rates-expected-move-below-6-percent-end-2026
Mortgage Bankers Association - Mortgage Finance Forecast (December 2025) https://www.housingwire.com/articles/existing-home-sales-edge-higher-in-november/
U.S. News - Mortgage Rate Forecast (December 5, 2025) https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecast
Money.com - Mortgage Rate Predictions (December 29, 2025) https://money.com/mortgage-rate-predictions-2026/
Teton Board of Realtors MLS - Sublette County Market Data (2023-2025)